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Week 3 · 2026 season

Sort Kickoff Likelihood Margin

Falcons at Packers

Thu Sep 24 · 8:15 PM ET Prime Video Lambeau Field

Projection

Pre kickoff
ATL Falcons Away · RecordWins and losses so far this season, counted from final scores, as of 2026-09-25.
GB Packers Home · RecordWins and losses so far this season, counted from final scores, as of 2026-09-25.

Projected marginHalf the time we expect the Packers to win by more than 4.7 points, half the time by less.

The rangeNine times in ten the final margin should land between ATL by 18.8 and GB by 31.1. A wide range means the model is unsure.

What 40% meansOut of 100 games like this one, our model expects the Falcons to win about 40. It is a forecast, not advice. What 60% meansOut of 100 games like this one, our model expects the Packers to win about 60. It is a forecast, not advice.

Projected score

18.9 total 42.5 23.6

Thu Sep 24 · 8:15 PM ET , Lambeau Field

Matchup

ATL GB

Points scored per game
Points per gamePoints scored and points allowed per game this season, counted from final scores only.
Points per gamePoints scored and points allowed per game this season, counted from final scores only.
Points allowed per game
Points per gamePoints scored and points allowed per game this season, counted from final scores only.
Points per gamePoints scored and points allowed per game this season, counted from final scores only.
Our rating
Our ratingHow many points better than an average team we think this one is on a neutral field. It moves every week with results.
Our ratingHow many points better than an average team we think this one is on a neutral field. It moves every week with results.
Road and home record
RecordWins and losses so far this season, counted from final scores, as of 2026-09-25.
RecordWins and losses so far this season, counted from final scores, as of 2026-09-25.
Ranked players out
Ranked players outPlayers listed Out or Doubtful who are in our published rankings for this week. We rank quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends, so a team can have players ruled out and still read zero here.
Ranked players outPlayers listed Out or Doubtful who are in our published rankings for this week. We rank quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends, so a team can have players ruled out and still read zero here.

Forecast

How the forecast movedEach point is a forecast we published this week. Earlier numbers stay on the page; we never overwrite a call.

60 57 57 57 57 finals absorbed: DET at BUF 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 finals absorbed: MIN at CHI, NO at BAL, PHI at TEN, PIT at NE 57 finals absorbed: CAR at ATL, CIN at HOU, MIN at CHI, NO at BAL, PHI at TEN, PIT 57 finals absorbed: CAR at ATL, CIN at HOU, GB at NYJ, MIN at CHI, NO at BAL, PHI a 60 60 finals absorbed: CLE at TB 60 finals absorbed: CLE at TB, JAX at DEN 60 finals absorbed: CLE at TB, JAX at DEN 60 finals absorbed: CLE at TB, JAX at DEN, LV at LAC, MIA at SF, SEA at ARI 60 finals absorbed: CLE at TB, JAX at DEN, LV at LAC, MIA at SF, SEA at ARI, WAS at 60 60 60 finals absorbed: CLE at TB, IND at KC, JAX at DEN, LV at LAC, MIA at SF, SEA at 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 40 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 GB ATL

Margin range

The rangeNine times in ten the final margin should land between Falcons by 18.8 and Packers by 31.1. A wide range means the model is unsure.

Falcons by 18.8tiedPackers by 31.1

See this forecast in the published archive

PublishedWhen the forecasts on this page were computed and published. Forecasts change only on our schedule, not on every headline. · run 2026-03-inactives-1bd5c8ee