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Raiders at Patriots, Week 5 2026

Raiders 3-1 17
LV
17 FINAL 45
Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET · CBS Sun Oct 11 · CBS Gillette Stadium
NE
Patriots 2-2 45
LV 46%
NE 54%
Hit 54% at kickoff · NE by 2 54% at kickoff · NE by 2 Market closed NE -3.5 · O/U 45.5

Closing line from the market, shown for research. Not our number and not advice.

Games we called at 50 to 55%: 14 of 24 hit, this one included · Track record →

LINESCORE

Team1234OTT
LV-----17
NE-----45

WHERE IT LANDED

We said NE by 2. It finished NE by 28.

LV by 21tieNE by 28

Bar: 9 in 10 land inside. Tick: our median. Ring: the final margin.

Bar: 9 in 10 runs land inside. Tick: our median. Ring: the final margin.

BIGGEST SWINGS

Not published yet.

TOP PERFORMERS, PROJECTED VS ACTUAL

NE D.Maye QB 16.3 → 39.5
LV B.Bowers TE 10.6 → 21.0
NE R.Stevenson RB 9.8 → 16.0

Grey bar: what we projected. Tick: what they scored. Fantasy points, half PPR.

Fantasy points, half PPR.

WIN PROBABILITY, FIRST RUN TO FINAL

kickoff 54%
Patriots Raiders

PLAYERS

PLAYER POS RANK PROJ ACTUAL
B.Bowers TE3 10.6 21.0
A.Jeanty RB12 12.1 9.2
M.Mayer TE12 7.2 0.7
K.Cousins QB19 15.2 13.7
T.Tucker WR35 6.7 5.5
PLAYER POS RANK PROJ ACTUAL
D.Maye QB11 16.3 39.5
R.Stevenson RB17 9.8 16.0
H.Henry TE21 4.8 11.9
T.Henderson RB34 5.9 3.1
R.Doubs WR39 6.3 2.1

Proj is what we published before kickoff. Actual is what they scored. Green when they beat the projection.

Week 5 · published Sun Oct 11 · 11:58 PM ET · run 2026-05-reprice-b2cd2afa

Week 5 · published Sun Oct 11 · run 2026-05-reprice-b2cd2afa