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Vikings at Saints, Week 5 2026

Vikings 4-0 23
MIN
23 FINAL 13
Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET · Fox Sun Oct 11 · Fox Caesars Superdome
NO
Saints 1-3 13
MIN 51%
NO 49%
Hit 51% at kickoff · MIN by 1 51% at kickoff · MIN by 1 Market closed MIN -2.5 · O/U 41.5

Closing line from the market, shown for research. Not our number and not advice.

Games we called at 50 to 55%: 14 of 24 hit, this one included · Track record →

LINESCORE

Team1234OTT
MIN-----23
NO-----13

WHERE IT LANDED

We said MIN by 1. It finished MIN by 10.

MIN by 24tieNO by 23

Bar: 9 in 10 land inside. Tick: our median. Ring: the final margin.

Bar: 9 in 10 runs land inside. Tick: our median. Ring: the final margin.

BIGGEST SWINGS

Not published yet.

TOP PERFORMERS, PROJECTED VS ACTUAL

MIN A.Jones RB 13.0 → 19.2
MIN K.Murray QB 14.4 → 18.3
MIN J.Jefferson WR 7.4 → 15.8

Grey bar: what we projected. Tick: what they scored. Fantasy points, half PPR.

Fantasy points, half PPR.

WIN PROBABILITY, FIRST RUN TO FINAL

kickoff 51%
Saints Vikings

PLAYERS

PLAYER POS RANK PROJ ACTUAL
A.Jones RB7 13.0 19.2
T.Hockenson TE7 8.1 1.2
K.Murray QB23 14.4 18.3
C.Wentz QB28 13.5 -
J.Jefferson WR30 7.4 15.8
PLAYER POS RANK PROJ ACTUAL
C.Olave WR2 13.6 6.6
T.Shough QB4 17.7 -0.2
J.Johnson TE10 7.8 3.6
D.Vele WR24 8.2 4.6
A.Kamara RB36 5.5 1.6

Proj is what we published before kickoff. Actual is what they scored. Green when they beat the projection.

Week 5 · published Sun Oct 11 · 11:58 PM ET · run 2026-05-reprice-b2cd2afa

Week 5 · published Sun Oct 11 · run 2026-05-reprice-b2cd2afa