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LAC

CHARGERS · QB · #10

Justin Herbert

bye Week 7 Healthy

WEEK 4 · at SEA · Sun 4:25 PM · CBS

13.9

floor 9.3 · ceiling 19.2 · half PPR

QB29Not published yet.
Start or sit
Healthy

WEEK 4 · at SEA · Sun 4:25 PM · CBS

13.9

9.3 to 19.2

QB29
Not published yet. Start or sit

HOW SURE, WEEK 4

  • Projection 13.9
  • Floor 9.3
  • Ceiling 19.2

Not published yet.

Floor and ceiling are the 20th and 80th percentiles of our projection; the projection is the median. The ranking and Start or sit read the same numbers.

THE STAT LINE BEHIND IT

Standard 13.9Half PPR 13.9PPR 13.96-pt pass TD -Quarterbacks do not catch passes, so the formats agree.
CMP -ATT 28.8PASS YDS 199PASS TD 0.9INT 1.0RUSH 4.4 · 19RUSH TD 0.0

Std 13.9 · Half 13.9 · PPR 13.9. Source: Model · engine2-0.2.0.

OUR RECORD ON HERBERT, PROJECTED VS ACTUAL

  • Week 1: projected 16.9, range 9.0 to 21.6, scored 13.3
  • Week 2: projected 16.9, range 10.4 to 23.6, scored 7.9
  • Week 3: projected 15.9, range 10.0 to 22.4, scored 12.7
  • Week 4: projected 13.9, range 9.3 to 19.2, scored 11.6
  • Week 7: bye
3 of 4 Inside the band −4.5 Mean error −9.0, Week 2 Biggest miss Not published yet. 2025

Grey bar: what we projected before kickoff, with the band. Tick: what he scored, from the official box score once it is published.

3 of 4 inside the band · mean error −4.5. Grey: our band. Green: what he scored.

REST OF SEASON

13 games left

  1. 4@SEA13.9
  2. 5DEN-
  3. 6@KC-
  4. 7BYEno game
  5. 8@LA-
  6. 9HOU-
  7. 10@BAL-
  8. 11NYJ-
  9. 12NE-
  10. 13@TB-
  11. 14@LV-
  12. 15SF-
  13. 16@MIA-
  14. 17KC-
  15. 18@DEN-

This week's projection, then each week's opponent. Bye dashed.

RANK AT THE POSITION, BY RUN

9/8: QB12, 9/15: QB19, 9/20: QB10, 9/22: QB17, 9/24: QB18, 9/27: QB17, 9/29: QB31, 10/1: QB31, 10/4: QB29

One point per day with a run on file: its newest, none after his kickoff. Lower is better.

AROUND HIM AT QB, WEEK 4

  1. QB27J.LoveGB14.2
  2. QB28K.CousinsLV14.0
  3. QB29J.HerbertLAC13.9
  4. QB30S.DarnoldSEA13.7
  5. QB31J.WinstonNYG12.9
Full QB rankings

CONTEXT

DEPTH CHART
QB1 · behind him T.Lance
TEAM
Chargers · rating +0.1, 16th
LAST WEEK
at BUF · 12.7 pts

Week 4 · published Sun Oct 4 · 4:18 PM ET · run 2026-04-reprice-d1fc456b · scored weekly against the official box score