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MIN

VIKINGS · QB · #1

Kyler Murray

bye Week 6 Healthy

WEEK 4 · vs MIA · Sun 4:05 PM · Fox

14.4

floor 7.5 · ceiling 21.9 · half PPR

QB22Not published yet.
Start or sit
Healthy

WEEK 4 · vs MIA · Sun 4:05 PM · Fox

14.4

7.5 to 21.9

QB22
Not published yet. Start or sit

HOW SURE, WEEK 4

  • Projection 14.4
  • Floor 7.5
  • Ceiling 21.9

Not published yet.

Floor and ceiling are the 20th and 80th percentiles of our projection; the projection is the median. The ranking and Start or sit read the same numbers.

THE STAT LINE BEHIND IT

Standard 14.4Half PPR 14.4PPR 14.46-pt pass TD -Quarterbacks do not catch passes, so the formats agree.
CMP -ATT 28.1PASS YDS 208PASS TD 1.3INT 0.1RUSH 4.3 · 19RUSH TD 0.0

Std 14.4 · Half 14.4 · PPR 14.4. Source: Model · engine2-0.2.0.

OUR RECORD ON MURRAY, PROJECTED VS ACTUAL

  • Week 1: projected 20.1, range 13.6 to 27.0, scored −0.4
  • Week 2: no projection on record
  • Week 3: projected 7.1, range 0.6 to 18.1, scored 10.4
  • Week 4: projected 14.4, range 7.5 to 21.9, scored 11.5
  • Week 6: bye
2 of 3 Inside the band −6.7 Mean error −20.5, Week 1 Biggest miss Not published yet. 2025

Grey bar: what we projected before kickoff, with the band. Tick: what he scored, from the official box score once it is published.

2 of 3 inside the band · mean error −6.7. Grey: our band. Green: what he scored.

REST OF SEASON

13 games left

  1. 4MIA14.4
  2. 5@NO-
  3. 6BYEno game
  4. 7IND-
  5. 8@DET-
  6. 9BUF-
  7. 10@GB-
  8. 11@SF-
  9. 12ATL-
  10. 13CAR-
  11. 14@NE-
  12. 15DET-
  13. 16WAS-
  14. 17@NYJ-
  15. 18CHI-

This week's projection, then each week's opponent. Bye dashed.

RANK AT THE POSITION, BY RUN

9/8: QB1, 9/15: QB2, 9/20: not ranked, 9/22: QB37, 9/24: QB37, 9/27: QB35, 9/29: QB24, 10/1: QB24, 10/4: QB22

One point per day with a run on file: its newest, none after his kickoff. Lower is better.

AROUND HIM AT QB, WEEK 4

  1. QB20J.BrissettARI14.9
  2. QB21G.SmithNYJ14.9
  3. QB22K.MurrayMIN14.4
  4. QB23M.Penix Jr.ATL14.4
  5. QB24C.WentzMIN14.4
Full QB rankings

CONTEXT

DEPTH CHART
QB1 · behind him C.Wentz
TEAM
Vikings · rating +2.4, 10th
LAST WEEK
at TB · 10.4 pts

Week 4 · published Sun Oct 4 · 4:01 PM ET · run 2026-04-inactives-3475ae2c · scored weekly against the official box score