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DEN

BRONCOS · QB · #10

Bo Nix

bye Week 10 Healthy

WEEK 4 · at SF · Sun 4:25 PM · CBS

16.1

floor 11.8 · ceiling 21.9 · half PPR

QB15Not published yet.
Start or sit
Healthy

WEEK 4 · at SF · Sun 4:25 PM · CBS

16.1

11.8 to 21.9

QB15
Not published yet. Start or sit

HOW SURE, WEEK 4

  • Projection 16.1
  • Floor 11.8
  • Ceiling 21.9

Not published yet.

Floor and ceiling are the 20th and 80th percentiles of our projection; the projection is the median. The ranking and Start or sit read the same numbers.

THE STAT LINE BEHIND IT

Standard 16.1Half PPR 16.1PPR 16.16-pt pass TD -Quarterbacks do not catch passes, so the formats agree.
CMP -ATT 32.6PASS YDS 231PASS TD 1.5INT 0.7RUSH 4.1 · 16RUSH TD 0.0

Std 16.1 · Half 16.1 · PPR 16.1. Source: Model · engine2-0.2.0.

OUR RECORD ON NIX, PROJECTED VS ACTUAL

  • Week 1: projected 16.0, range 10.9 to 23.7, scored 7.4
  • Week 2: projected 15.0, range 10.2 to 21.5, scored 14.1
  • Week 3: projected 16.2, range 12.8 to 22.2, scored 20.1
  • Week 4: projected 16.1, range 11.8 to 21.9, scored 13.6
  • Week 10: bye
3 of 4 Inside the band −2.0 Mean error −8.6, Week 1 Biggest miss Not published yet. 2025

Grey bar: what we projected before kickoff, with the band. Tick: what he scored, from the official box score once it is published.

3 of 4 inside the band · mean error −2.0. Grey: our band. Green: what he scored.

REST OF SEASON

13 games left

  1. 4@SF16.1
  2. 5@LAC-
  3. 6SEA-
  4. 7@ARI-
  5. 8KC-
  6. 9@CAR-
  7. 10BYEno game
  8. 11LV-
  9. 12@PIT-
  10. 13MIA-
  11. 14@NYJ-
  12. 15@LV-
  13. 16BUF-
  14. 17@NE-
  15. 18LAC-

This week's projection, then each week's opponent. Bye dashed.

RANK AT THE POSITION, BY RUN

9/8: QB11, 9/14: QB16, 9/15: QB17, 9/20: QB22, 9/22: QB13, 9/24: QB15, 9/27: QB14, 9/29: QB16, 10/1: QB16, 10/4: QB15

One point per day with a run on file: its newest, none after his kickoff. Lower is better.

AROUND HIM AT QB, WEEK 4

  1. QB13M.StaffordLA16.2
  2. QB14J.HurtsPHI16.2
  3. QB15B.NixDEN16.1
  4. QB16D.WatsonCLE15.9
  5. QB17D.JonesIND15.2
Full QB rankings

CONTEXT

DEPTH CHART
QB1 · behind him J.Stidham
TEAM
Broncos · rating +1.6, 12th
LAST WEEK
vs LA · 20.1 pts

Week 4 · published Sun Oct 4 · 4:18 PM ET · run 2026-04-reprice-d1fc456b · scored weekly against the official box score