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KC

CHIEFS · QB · #15

Patrick Mahomes

bye Week 5 Healthy

WEEK 4 · at LV · Sun 4:25 PM · CBS

17.8

floor 13.2 · ceiling 24.8 · half PPR

QB7Not published yet.
Start or sit
Healthy

WEEK 4 · at LV · Sun 4:25 PM · CBS

17.8

13.2 to 24.8

QB7
Not published yet. Start or sit

HOW SURE, WEEK 4

  • Projection 17.8
  • Floor 13.2
  • Ceiling 24.8

Not published yet.

Floor and ceiling are the 20th and 80th percentiles of our projection; the projection is the median. The ranking and Start or sit read the same numbers.

THE STAT LINE BEHIND IT

Standard 17.8Half PPR 17.8PPR 17.86-pt pass TD -Quarterbacks do not catch passes, so the formats agree.
CMP -ATT 33.2PASS YDS 248PASS TD 1.6INT 0.7RUSH 3.4 · 16RUSH TD 0.0

Std 17.8 · Half 17.8 · PPR 17.8. Source: Model · engine2-0.2.0.

OUR RECORD ON MAHOMES, PROJECTED VS ACTUAL

  • Week 1: projected 15.4, range 12.8 to 20.4, scored 21.7
  • Week 2: projected 17.0, range 11.2 to 23.8, scored 29.0
  • Week 3: projected 17.3, range 13.0 to 22.9, scored 15.9
  • Week 4: projected 17.8, range 13.2 to 24.8, scored 17.0
  • Week 5: bye
2 of 4 Inside the band +4.0 Mean error +12.0, Week 2 Biggest miss Not published yet. 2025

Grey bar: what we projected before kickoff, with the band. Tick: what he scored, from the official box score once it is published.

2 of 4 inside the band · mean error +4.0. Grey: our band. Green: what he scored.

REST OF SEASON

13 games left

  1. 4@LV17.8
  2. 5BYEno game
  3. 6LAC-
  4. 7@SEA-
  5. 8@DEN-
  6. 9NYJ-
  7. 10@ATL-
  8. 11ARI-
  9. 12@BUF-
  10. 13@LA-
  11. 14@CIN-
  12. 15NE-
  13. 16SF-
  14. 17@LAC-
  15. 18LV-

This week's projection, then each week's opponent. Bye dashed.

RANK AT THE POSITION, BY RUN

9/8: QB10, 9/14: QB21, 9/15: QB22, 9/20: QB9, 9/22: QB7, 9/24: QB8, 9/27: QB7, 9/29: QB9, 10/1: QB9, 10/4: QB7

One point per day with a run on file: its newest, none after his kickoff. Lower is better.

AROUND HIM AT QB, WEEK 4

  1. QB5B.YoungCAR18.0
  2. QB6J.GoffDET18.0
  3. QB7P.MahomesKC17.8
  4. QB8B.PurdySF17.5
  5. QB9M.MariotaWAS16.9
Full QB rankings

CONTEXT

DEPTH CHART
QB1 · behind him J.Fields
TEAM
Chiefs · rating +3.6, 5th
LAST WEEK
at MIA · 15.9 pts

Week 4 · published Sun Oct 4 · 4:18 PM ET · run 2026-04-reprice-d1fc456b · scored weekly against the official box score