↑↓move ↵open escclose Players, teams and this week's games · type a position like "rb" for the list

Players, teams and this week's games. Type a position like "rb" for the list.

WAS

COMMANDERS · QB · #8

Marcus Mariota

bye Week 7 Healthy

WEEK 4 · vs IND · Sun 9:30 AM · NFL Net

16.9

floor 7.0 · ceiling 21.9 · half PPR

QB9▲ 1.2 since TuesdayNot published yet.
Start or sit
Healthy

WEEK 4 · vs IND · Sun 9:30 AM · NFL Net

16.9

7.0 to 21.9

QB9
▲ 1.2 since TueNot published yet. Start or sit

HOW SURE, WEEK 4

  • Projection 16.9
  • Floor 7.0
  • Ceiling 21.9

Not published yet.

Floor and ceiling are the 20th and 80th percentiles of our projection; the projection is the median. The ranking and Start or sit read the same numbers.

THE STAT LINE BEHIND IT

Standard 16.9Half PPR 16.9PPR 16.96-pt pass TD -Quarterbacks do not catch passes, so the formats agree.
CMP -ATT 28.5PASS YDS 191PASS TD 1.3INT 0.2RUSH 5.5 · 23RUSH TD 0.0

Std 16.9 · Half 16.9 · PPR 16.9. Source: Model · engine2-0.2.0.

OUR RECORD ON MARIOTA, PROJECTED VS ACTUAL

  • Week 1: projected 14.3, range 6.6 to 19.5, no stat line
  • Week 2: no projection on record
  • Week 3: projected 10.8, range 4.4 to 16.2, scored 20.4
  • Week 4: projected 16.9, range 7.0 to 21.9, scored 5.3
  • Week 7: bye
0 of 2 Inside the band −0.9 Mean error −11.5, Week 4 Biggest miss Not published yet. 2025

Grey bar: what we projected before kickoff, with the band. Tick: what he scored, from the official box score once it is published.

0 of 2 inside the band · mean error −0.9. Grey: our band. Green: what he scored.

REST OF SEASON

13 games left

  1. 4IND16.9
  2. 5NYG-
  3. 6@SF-
  4. 7BYEno game
  5. 8PHI-
  6. 9LA-
  7. 10@NYG-
  8. 11CIN-
  9. 12@ARI-
  10. 13@TEN-
  11. 14HOU-
  12. 15ATL-
  13. 16@MIN-
  14. 17@JAX-
  15. 18DAL-

This week's projection, then each week's opponent. Bye dashed.

RANK AT THE POSITION, BY RUN

9/8: QB30, 9/15: QB27, 9/20: not ranked, 9/22: QB35, 9/24: QB35, 9/27: QB31, 9/29: QB18, 10/1: QB18, 10/4: QB9

One point per day with a run on file: its newest, none after his kickoff. Lower is better.

AROUND HIM AT QB, WEEK 4

  1. QB7P.MahomesKC17.8
  2. QB8B.PurdySF17.5
  3. QB9M.MariotaWAS16.9
  4. QB10J.BurrowCIN16.8
  5. QB11C.StroudHOU16.4
Full QB rankings

CONTEXT

DEPTH CHART
QB2 · behind him A.Kaliakmanis
TEAM
Commanders · rating −3.0, 26th
LAST WEEK
vs SEA · 20.4 pts

Week 4 · published Sun Oct 4 · 9:26 AM ET · run 2026-04-inactives-eadf2cc3 · scored weekly against the official box score